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| The Eagles' scapegoat for a poor start? Photo Credit: Larry Brown Sports |
1. Why did the Eagles fire Juan Castillo when it's their offense that's underperforming?
This happened for a few reasons. First, it's not like Castillo was lighting the world on fire with his defense either. As I noted over at the High Phive, his pass rush this year has been non-existent, and that has allowed the Steelers and Lions to come back against tired secondaries who have to chase around wide receivers getting to run free for long periods of time because the quarterback has all day. He's not totally to blame here.
However, the reason why the Eagles are 3-3 heading into their bye week and not 5-1 is because of the offense more than the defense. Castillo was a handy-dandy scapegoat for the team thanks to his unit's disastrous start to last year's campaign, a start that pretty much sunk the team to 8-8 mediocrity and a fate to watch the Giants win the Super Bowl when they could very well have kept them out of the playoffs with another win or two. His unit improved this year, but does anyone think Andy Reid is going to fire his right hand man, Marty Morhinweg? His expensive, turnover-prone quarterback Michael Vick? Himself? No way. That'll all come at the end of the year if things don't get turned around, and it'll come from a power much higher on the team than Reid's. This was just something Reid did to save face. I don't know if it'll work or not, but I bet you if Vick only commits, say, four turnovers instead of 14, Castillo still has a job and no one is complaining about this team.
2. The Giants did barely squeak into the playoffs last year, but they've pretty much wailed on everyone they've played except for their divisional rivals. Are they the favorites to repeat?
As much as I hate to say it, yeah, I think they are. They have a monstrous pass rush, an opportunistic secondary and a clutch quarterback. I just threw up in my mouth calling Eli Manning clutch, but I gotta give the devil his due here. Those three mixed together create a team that will end up winning a lot of games in January and February. Now, it's a question on whether they stay healthy, which of course is valid for EVERY team. I also wouldn't be so quick to write off the Texans, their showing Sunday night notwithstanding, the 49ers, who may have just played a bad game against those same Giants, or the Falcons, who are the only undefeated team left standing. However, if I had money to burn in Vegas, I might put it down on the Giants. One, because it'd be a smart bet and two, because I want to jinx their season so bad that it hurts.
3. Is it safe to say that whatever ESPN says about football this year that you should probably believe the opposite?
Between Wes Welker's offensive production and Peyton Manning throwing the long ball like it was 2004 again, I'd say yes. They're the wrestling dirtsheets of the sports world. They take any rumor and run with it as if it were gospel, no matter how much it's been proven to the contrary. Whether it's their reporting that Welker is being "phased out" in New England because of his contract demands or Manning having a noodle arm because noted Pats fan and Manning hater Bill Simmons said so, it's pretty bad.
However, whatever they say about Tim Tebow, man, you can take that to the bank.
4. Tebow is in the AFC East, which currently has four teams tied for first place. Which among them are going to be playoff contenders when the dust settles?
The Bills can't stop anyone with their expensive yet porous defense, and the Jets have two shitty quarterbacks, which means they have no quarterback. That leaves the Patriots and the Dolphins. The Phins were roundly mocked for trading up to get Ryan Tannehill, but he seems to be inoffensive so far at the very least. He doesn't have the mind-blowing stats of Robert Griffin III or the signature, media-friendly comeback win that Andrew Luck has, but he's shown promise, especially in the last two games. The team also has a pretty solid defense. They're 12th in scoring defense and have had a positive contribution in Expected Points Contributed by the defense via Pro Football Reference.
The Pats may have gotten a game stolen from them by the replacement officials against Baltimore and had to play one of the toughest defenses in the league in Seattle, but you know they're coming back, barring something catastrophic.
5. Speaking of tight divisions, the NFC West has a three-way tie at the top. Who's for real there?
Well, all three teams, San Francisco, Seattle and Arizona, are in the top half of the league in total defense by yardage and in the top 7 of Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings. That being said, the Cardinals have two shitty, injured quarterbacks, and the Seahawks are starting a rookie there. Oh yeah, and they had a game CLEARLY stolen for them by the replacement officials. However, where I think the Seahawks and Cardinals are divergent is that that the former has a full complement of offensive skill position players, while the latter has Larry Fitzgerald and some warm bodies. I think the Niners are playoff locks at this point, and the Seahawks will be their stiffest challenge. The Cards may hang around, but in a playoff picture that will probably see them fighting with five other teams for one final spot, it's not looking good for the Buzzsaw.
6. Speaking of the officials, do you want the replacement officials back yet?
No, never, not in a million years. I will stand by my assessment that the "real" refs aren't perfect, but they're the best at what they do, even if they start getting shit wrong like Jeff Triplette did by calling five phantom false start penalties on Philip Rivers this past Monday. C'mon Jeff, don't you know Marmalard doesn't need help throwing the game away? Still, the proof in how much better the real refs are over the scabs is in the NFL Red Zone channel. During the scabs' stint, the games were going so late that Red Zone had to either stop broadcasting or that they didn't have enough time to show their touchdown montage at the end of the proceedings because they were impinging on NBC's exclusive right of telecast during that timeframe. The games have been quicker because the refs were calling fewer penalties and they weren't taking all day to call the penalties they were enforcing. That makes all the difference in the world.
7. Do you think Greg Zuerlein is going to break the NFL record for longest field goal this year?
If I had to bet, I would say no, because there are a lot of factors that go into whether a kicker is going to attempt that long a field goal. Most NFL coaches are conservative to a fault, and they place maybe more importance than what's needed on the field position battle. The Rams would have to find themselves in a pretty specific situation in the time of game to try a field goal of that length, either behind or tied with only a few seconds left on the clock with no way of getting any closer than, say, midfield for an attempt. There are too many variables to say with any clarity that he would get in that position in the first place.
However, if it does happen, and he's playing at home? All bets are off. If this kid gets a chance to boot it from 64 yards or more, I think he'd make it with ease.
8. Speaking of conservative coaching, will the first coach to eschew tradition and start going for it on 4th down with regularity be a slam dunk Hall of Famer?
I don't know, but I do agree that most coaches are pussies nowadays. Again, the field position battle is way overrated, especially when it comes to offenses that can get chunks of yards easily regardless of down. We saw this come to a head when the Panthers punted on fourth and 1 in a road game against the Falcons. The ensuing drive led to the Falcons getting the winning score, thanks in part to a LOOOOOONG pass that was acrobatically caught by Roddy White. Sure, it was a somewhat lucky play, but at the same time, do the Falcons even get a chance to make it if the Panthers get the fourth down conversion? Even with Cam Newton's struggles this year, I like his chances of getting one yard on a QB keeper, either on a sneak or a bootleg, against any defense.
Of course, punting on fourth and 13 from your own 15 is probably the right call. Punting shouldn't go the way of the dinosaur, but on short conversions and especially conversions around midfield it should be severely curtailed.
9. So who are the Chiefs picking with their first overall pick, Matt Barkley or Geno Smith?
Yeah, the Chiefs really do look like dogshit, don't they? They had a lot of people, including myself, fooled before the season, but I guess you can't trust a team coached by Romeo Crennel or helmed by either Matt Cassell or Brady Quinn either. I wanna know what happened to that defense though. It's pretty rank. The whole team kinda sucks right now. As for who they take, who knows. I just think they'll be the ones with the choice.
10. Alright, gimme your playoff teams and your Super Bowl matchup, please?
In the NFC, I like the Giants, Bears, Falcons and 49ers to win their divisions, with the Seahawks and Packers taking the wild cards. In the AFC, let's go with the Patriots, Ravens, Texans and Broncos with the Dolphins and Steelers as wild cards. I'll go with the Niners and Texans in the Super Bowl, with the Niners winning. Fairly boring predictions, but I'd rather be right than exciting. Of course, I probably won't be right either, because the landscape can change pretty heavily over the next eleven weeks of this season.
