Thursday, December 13, 2012

This Week in Off-Topic: NFL Home Stretch Assessment

Save us, RGIII, you're our only hope
Photo via Sideline Pass
It's almost time for the playoffs. Just don't tell Jim Mora, Sr.

1. The Eagles broke an eight-game losing streak Sunday. Are you happy for the win or angry at the draft implications?

First off, I thought about it last year when the Eagles came out of the gate awful, but even then, I couldn't sit and watch the game with a vested interest in watching my favorite team lose. I couldn't. I was happy when they went on that tear, beat the piss out of the Jets, and swept the Dallas Cowboys because I like seeing the team I actively root for win football games. If I felt that way last year with a draft class that actually had some good talent in it, I certainly feel that way this year when the coffers are relatively bare. You can get good players anywhere in the draft. The Eagles got Corey Simon in the mid-high first round.

Hell, if the Eagles win two of their last three games and somehow finish 6-10, they will probably pick between 8-14 in the first round. Here are a list of players that have been selected between those picks:
Jammal Brown, Ryan Clady, Michael Crabtree, Jay Cutler, Nick Fairley, Jordan Gross, Derrick Johnson, Luke Kuechly, Marshawn Lynch, Jerod Mayo, Shawne Merriman, Haloti Ngata, Brian Orakpo, BJ Raji, Darrelle Revis, Dunta Robinson, Ben Roethlisberger, Carlos Rogers, Antrel Rolle, CJ Spiller, Jonathan Stewart, Terrell Suggs, Jonathan Vilma, DeMarcus Ware, JJ Watt, Donte Whitner, Kevin Williams, Patrick Willis
Yeah, the pedigree of player is there. Now, do I trust Howie Roseman (who if you believe things, signed an extension) to make the right pick there? Not really (although he did seemingly get Fletcher Cox right in that range last year), but that's a whole other story.

The point is that when Nick Foles threw that last second touchdown pass to Jeremy Maclin, I was happy. I like seeing the Eagles win. That's why I've kinda stopped watching them on Sundays and switched to Red Zone, because I don't want to watch them lose, and if they do win, they'll show up pretty often there.

2. Staying in the division, do you trust the Washington Redskins to be able to fend off the Cowboys and the Giants?

I can't answer this question with any semblance of objectivity, because all things considered, the 'Skins are the least offensive option available (which is funny since they have the most offensive team name in all of sports... staaaahp that, Washington, staahp). Part of it is because they're not the Cowboys. Part of it is because the Giants won the whole thing last year and I'm sick of them. Part of it is because I just love watching Robert Griffin III play football.

However, just because I want to see them win now that the Eagles are mathematically eliminated doesn't mean they will win. The Cowboys have this annoying historical proclivity to be good just to spite me (not scientific by any means), and they seem to have the formula to win football games - throw for a bunch of yards and sack the quarterback. Tony Romo hasn't Romo'd a game lately, and there's always the chance he has his one streak of good luck take over to limit his turnovers. That's why I seem to have this awful gut feeling that Dallas wins the East because it almost seems to be their year. Remember, the Giants are just as known for choking as they are for surging down the stretch. Tom Coughlin wouldn't be on the hot seat if he always pulled playoff runs out of his ass.

But the 'Skins do have a shot, I think. If RGIII can change his game enough to defy what's been filmed of him (and stay healthy too), and if their defense can generate enough of a pass rush to nerf their awful, awful secondary, I can see them taking the East.

3. Are the Patriots the best team in the NFL?

No, they're not. They have been playing the best in the NFL, but I'm not ready to hand the crown over to them unless they beat San Francisco this week. Even then, there's no guarantee that they'll make it out of the AFC playoffs alive with Denver lurking in the weeds. Yeah, the Broncos, remember them? A team with a quarterback who thrives on picking apart shitty secondaries in Peyton Manning and a pass rush/secondary combo that is a nightmare for a pass-first team like the Pats? Right now, I'd say those two teams are better, but again, we'll see.

That being said, the Pats did expose the Texans this past Monday. I mean, it's hard to argue with those results, but one game is a small sample size. It's easy to pass on the Patriots, and even in blowout wins over the Colts and Bills, they gave up a buttload of yards. Are Colin Kaepernick and his receivers a bigger threat than Matt Schaub and his were? I would probably say yes at this point, but we'll see Sunday night.

4. Is there any chance Norv Turner and Andy Reid are back as their teams' head coaches next year?

If reports are to be believed, Turner and his GM/enabler AJ Smith are both out the door at the end of the year. I don't want to take those secret leaks to be gospel, because if the ESPN-age of shitty journalism has taught us anything, rumors and speculation-reported as news are as rampant in sports as they are in wrestling. ESPN is no longer any more reputable than Dave Meltzer. But for the health and wellness of Chargers fans everywhere, I'd assume Turner's goose is cooked.

As for Reid, man, I wanna say loss #9 against the Cowboys was the final straw because it pretty much knocked the Eagles out of the playoffs. Jeffrey Lurie said that 8-8 wouldn't be good enough in the preseason. Is his word as good as his bond? The common logic says yes, but there are two things that make me curious as whether Reid will be gone or not. One is that his teams often finish strong down the stretch, and if the Eagles do finish 7-9 or even 6-10, I can see it being enough of an illusion to bring Reid back. Secondly, all this chatter about Jim Washburn and to an extent, Howard Mudd being the real problems with the team over the last two years might make them scapegoats enough to warrant one more chance for Reid to prove that he wasn't the one that was wrong with this team. Other than the last two years, '05, and his first season, this team has been good if not great.

I think it's time for a change. Most of Philly and the alternative media (y'know, the one not populated with ex-NFL coaches and players who have a reflex to stick up for their own) think it's time for a change. However, with this regime, I have no idea if it really is time for a change in reality.

5. Are the Seahawks having the most wrestling heel season ever?

Let's recap why that would be a valid statement to say:

Week 1 - Awarded a fourth timeout in a loss against the Arizona Cardinals
Week 3 - Beneficiary of SEVERAL questionable calls, including a flat-out wrong touchdown reception that directly led to them winning the game against the Green Bay Packers
Post Week 3 - NFL works out agreement with regular officials directly because of that botched TD call
Post Week 13 - Both starting cornerbacks are suspended for use of Adderall
Week 14 - Richard Sherman, suspended for Adderall use, plays in game because he's appealing the suspension, returns a pick to the house. Seahawks blow out the Cardinals, 58-0, still throwing the ball for attempted scores late in the game despite being up large
In general - Pete Carroll has one of the most punchable faces in the world, is regarded as not an honorable dude

Now, I for one don't think running up the score is all that bad, but I seem to be in the minority on that. Just the fact that they stole a win from the Packers using inept refereeing is enough to make this the most wrestling heel season ever by a single team. The question is, does that make Seahawks fans the ironic, "root for the heel" sect of the NFL? It makes sense, since Seattle itself is one of the signpost cities for counterculture and different thinking.

6. If the debate about running up the score is bad, is the debate about which quarterbacks are "elite" even worse?

It's insufferable, and here's why. It's not even rooted in games on the field. Eli Manning has led the Giants to two Super Bowls in the last four years, and talking heads are still questioning whether he should be modified with that adjective. I think the guy is streaky and is propped up by his team, but at what point do we start going by results? Quarterback, though overrated, is still one of the two or three most important positions on the field (middle linebacker and blindside tackle being the other two), and you can't win with Ryan Lindley under center.

How about instead of worrying about which quarterbacks are elite in a hypothetical sense, pay attention to other players on the field who are doing great things. Yeah, it's great that we're pumping up Charles Tillman and JJ Watt, but what about the other guys who are having great season? CJ Spiller is raking up in Buffalo, and he'd be having an even greater season if his head coach wasn't brain dead. James Jones is making circus catches every week in Green Bay. Brandon Myers is actually having a breakout year, but that begs the question if a tree falls in the forest, does anyone really care about the Oakland Raiders? I may have mixed up my metaphors.

Even on the Baltimore Ravens, where Joe Flacco is having a bitch-fight with the media over his perception, the scribes and talking heads could just ignore his whining and instead ask why he's playing like ass and maybe talk up guys like Ray Rice (although he does get his share of pub), Paul Kruger, or Anquan Boldin, or about how that defense fell apart when Ladarius Webb went on IR? Novel concept.

7. When they reboot Ace Ventura in 10 years, are the roles of Dan Marino and Ray Finkle going to be reprised by Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith, respectively?

That assumes that Kaepernick is going to have a long and fruitful NFL career. Then again, I kinda like the kid's game. Is he better than Smith though? I really don't know, and that's the baffling part about Jim Harbaugh's decision to go with him. The logic is that you never strip a guy of his job because of injury, and Smith really wasn't playing all that badly to begin with. He was leading the NFL in completion percentage at the time of his concussion, and the Niners were 6-2. Kaepernick also played spottily in two embarrassing games against the Rams, where they went 0-1-1. But he's also looked pretty brilliant as well at times. Harbaugh's track record in the NFL is only 31 games long, but it's been pretty damn good so far. I guess we have to trust his judgment here.

8. Is this the year that no quarterback gets taken in the top five?

It all depends on who's picking there. There's no real QB projected to top five value, but that doesn't mean that a team won't reach for one. For example, the Chiefs have [fart noise] and [Price Is Right loser sound effect] at quarterback. Will they take the best player available, do the sensible thing by trading down to a spot where Geno Smith would be appropriate while nabbing more picks, or would they just REACH REACH REACH for Smith, Matt Barkley, or whomever it is they fall in love with? Remember, the draft is where guys' stocks shoot up like geysers in Yellowstone just because they throw a ball purty in college, yes they do. Right now, the Dolphins' selection of Ryan Tannehill seems right, but back then, it was considered a reach. Again, another reason why grading drafts as they happen is STUPID.

9. Can a player from a team that misses the playoffs really be the MVP?

Yes he can. People make the bullshit assessment that "most valuable" doesn't mean "best," because they somehow believe players don't have value on mediocre or shitty teams. Has anyone stopped to think that the Minnesota Vikings might be winless right now if they had to rely on Toby Gerhart to carry most of the load at running back? I don't think people really realize how much Adrian Peterson means to that team when the rest of the offense around him blows chunks like a kid going from the corn dog stand to the Gravitron. With that, here are my personal award projections, or at least how I'd vote, the last three games notwithstanding:

MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN
Defensive Player of the Year: JJ Watt, DE, HOU
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Robert Griffin III, WAS
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Luke Kuechly, LB, CAR
Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, SFO

10. Alright, crystal ball time. Who are your playoff teams and how does the tournament go?

Well, remember when I said I had a gut feeling the Cowboys would win the East? Fuck that, I'm picking with my heart, so that being said, the NFC division winners are Washington, Green Bay, Atlanta, and San Francisco. The wild cards are Seattle and Chicago. First round games, the Seahawks go into FedEx Field and beat the 'Skins, while the Packers hold serve against the Bears. Seahawks then upset the top seeded Falcons, while the Niners make it to their second NFC Title game in as many years. Niners take the title game, but not without a fight from those scoundrels from Seattle.

In the AFC, New England, Baltimore, Houston, and Denver win their divisions (pretty sure all but the Ravens have clinched already anyway), while Cincinnati and Indianapolis claim the wild cards. Ravens ream the Colts, while the Pats paste the Bengals in the first round. The Broncos avenge their early season loss to the Patriots, while the Texans take care of the Ravens again. AFC Championship Game goes to the Broncos.

That leads us to the San Francisco 49ers against the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl. Elway's Revenge! No, not quite. I got the Niners defense getting in Peyton Manning's grill and forcing a bunch of turnovers to get the win.