Barring some late-breaking storyline developments, we have a good idea of who's in the Rumble and which guys in the Rumble have a realistic shot of winning. According to WWE.com, here are the 25 guys already in the Rumble:
John Cena, Batista, Triple H, Shawn Michaels, Cody Rhodes, Ted DiBiase, Kofi Kingston, Chris Jericho, CM Punk, Santino Marella, The Hurricane, Zack Ryder (WWWYKI), Yoshi Tatsu, Shelton Benjamin, William Regal, MVP, the Miz, the Great Khali, Kane, Mark Henry, Jack Swagger, The Big Show, Evan Bourne, Carlito, R-Truth
There are five slots left to be announced. Usually, the Rumble has a number of suprise entrants. I expect a few, but I also expect Drew MacIntyre and John Morrison to be added to the Rumble. There are already four singles matches, and the Rumble takes up at least an hour. For all intents and purposes, I'm including them in the conversation.
When handicapping the Rumble, the best way to go is to divide the guys into groups of probability. Here's the first group:
No Chance in Hell
These are the guys that would be the most shocking choices to win. They're in for comedic purposes, or they're just too green, young nor not established.
Yoshi Tatsu and Zack Ryder - I like both guys as future draws for the company, and both, especially Ryder, might have an outside shot at winning a Rumble someday. However, right now, they're both up-and-comers in ECW, which usually isn't a good sign for your Rumble chances. My guess is that they'll both have their moments but will be eliminated by the guy who ends up getting the Diesel push.
After the jump...Hurricane - He recently asked for his release so he could wallow in Orlando with Jeff Hardy (who hasn't been seen since 1/4, mind you... think him and Matt Hardy changed their minds?). You don't get out of that doghouse so easily.
Santino Marella - He's become the new Buschwhacker in that he gets eliminated in record short amounts of time. Will this year be any different? Probably not, but if he gets anything more than a token elimination of Jack Swagger, I'll be shocked. Speaking of...
Jack Swagger - Whose corn flakes did he shit in? It seems like the WWE has soured bigtime on him since he and MVP failed to get a crowd reaction at SummerSlam, and a lot of that was blamed on him. Since then, he's been in an aborted feud with Miz over Eve Torres (who ended up valeting Chris Masters of all people), lost his ECW homecoming match to Yoshi Tatsu and then after an absence of appearance on RAW, his face time has consisted of getting humiliated by Santino week in and week out. Commentary on how he's being used will be refrained from at this point, but all I have to say is it certainly doesn't foreshadow an All-American American win here.
Carlito - They don't seem to be trying all too hard to do anything with him, so I doubt the Rumble will be where it all starts.
Evan Bourne - Check back in two years.
The Great Khali - Guy can barely stand up anymore. He'll be there as an attraction and probably eliminate a few people, but don't think the WWE has him around as anything but a sideshow attraction at this point (THANK CHRIST).
Shelton Benjamin - You have a better chance of seeing him win Money in the Bank, and he has a next to no chance of winning that every year he's in.
Any of the surprise entrants - This should go without saying. The surprise guys are here to pop the crowd and be fodder for elimination. Anyone short of The Rock or Edge is not going to do much but smile, hit a signature spot and get tossed.
Swerve Territory
These are the guys who have a little more than a slim-to-none chance of winning, but it would still be like the shock of the century if they did win.
Mark Henry - It's not inconceivable that Mark Henry would win this thing. They did give him a clean win over Randy Orton in the summertime, so you know in the backs of their minds that Henry has main event potential in places other than ECW. However, with so many other stories already coming into focus or potentially coming into focus, a Henry win is long past the time when it would have been effective.
William Regal - He's been a loyal soldier for years now and has been one of the more over heels on the roster at various points. It wouldn't be a total shock if Regal won the Rumble, but at the same time, if they were going to pull the trigger on him, they'd have done it by now. Plus, the dude's an injury or a wellness violation waiting to happen.
Cody Rhodes - It's interesting to see how Cody Rhodes has gone from automatic job boy of the Legacy stable into a guy they've actually tried to protect. A lot of it has to do with the vast improvements he's made both in and out of the ring since then. Even so, I still think he's behind his partner on the pecking order. Better luck next year, Codeman.
Kane - Nothing they ever do with Kane would ever surprise me. That being said, Kane is a longshot to win at best.
R-Truth - He's been a nice surprise since being rescued from career purgatory in TNA, and he's been over enough that he's held his own in feuds with Chris Jericho and CM Punk. Still, the only way I can see him winning is if a bunch of guys ahead of him came under Wellness fire and he was the highest carded guy with a clean slate.
Reasonable Doubt
We're getting warmer and warmer with the big shot names. These are the guys who will be sold as big threats to win and who might be inline for an elevation during the year, or they're veterans like Big Show with enough main event cache to conceivably win the event but not enough that having them be eliminated by a relative newbie wouldn't be a shock.
The Big Show - He's a guy who should be a serious contender to win every year, but the WWE has successfully cut the balls off him to the point where you're shocked if he dominates a smaller opponent like he should anymore. Show will be a dominant force and he's an outside shot at a surprise win or co-win like he shared with Rock in 2000 (unofficially), but he's not a guy you expect would come in and take the whole thing.
Kofi Kingston - He SHOULD win the Rumble this year. No doubt about it he should win. That's what you do after you get into a program where you take out the top heel on each brand in a Survivor Series match and then go toe-to-toe with the ace heel in the company for three months. Instead, they've officially dropped the ball on Kofi to the point where I can see him getting forgettably tossed over the top during someone's Diesel push. With the ham-handed way the WWE handles things, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kingston win with next-to-no momentum, but don't hold your breath.
John Morrison - If in a year or two he's not one of the odds on favorite to win a Rumble, there's something wrong with the WWE's star-building process. Regardless of my feelings on Morrison compared to his former tag partner, c'mon, he's over as hell and he's not terrible.
Drew MacIntyre - The sad part is, I can totally see him as a favorite to win next year even if he doesn't get over more. I hate McMahon pet projects
MVP - I have this funny feeling. It could just be a gut feeling, but I'm getting the notion that this whole feud with Miz is a smokescreen, and that the WWE has big plans for MVP this year if he can stay on the good side of the Wellness Policy. The fans have been clamoring for him to do more than just hang around the US Championship; it was proven at least to me when he came out his first night on RAW and handed Randy Orton his ass on the mic. They have to have seen that. THey have to have heard him holding his own with Jericho during their tag feud. They have to be hearing him now, as he and Miz are stealing the show from the lackluster main event scene. It's almost time. I almost want to pick him to win the Rumble, but again, the WWE has such a ham-handed way of elevating people that aren't their pet projects that all the bank MVP's earning now won't get paid off until later.
The Miz - If I were booking things, him and Kofi would be in the Final Four with Cena and Batista, and Miz would eliminate former before getting eliminated by the latter. I think the WWE has the same high opinion of Miz that I have, but I think they might have other things in mind for the Rumble winner. So, not this year.
Main Event Heel Types
They're pushed to the top of the card as heels, and might end up main eventing more than a few PPVs. You can definitely see them win, and they're "smart" choices by the dirtsheet analysts, but deep down inside, you know that they're going to lose out to big, big shots.
CM Punk - Punk winning the Rumble would and wouldn't shock me at the same time. It would shock me in that he seems to be far enough away from the title picture and getting heat his own way that they're not going to mess with that. Any time you can build a money feud or angle without having a title involved, it's gravy, especially with WrestleMania in the balance. It wouldn't shock me though, because the WWE is notorious for switching plans that were accidentally leaked just because they want to surprise people. Look at last year. Supposedly, it was Christian who was going to be Jeff Hardy's assailant, and they switched to Milquetoast Matt because the dirtsheets caught wind from a well-placed source. Still, a potential Punk/Mysterio or Punk/whomever match doesn't need a title to have importance, so I'm inclined to pick against him.
Chris Jericho - It would have provided an entree to get him back on RAW, but with Show moving onto the Miz and Jericho rumored to be taking on a returning Edge at WrestleMania, that angle seems to be dropped. Oh well, JeriShow vs. Edge and Christian would have been a money WM match. MONEY I SAY! Not that Jericho winning the Rumble would have made that possible. In fact, it would have signaled something totally different, but I digress. Anyway, Jericho winning would make a lot of sense. They had enough faith to put him on both shows for more than half-a-year, and he's a guy who could get heat from an ice cube if they programmed the two together. This is a possibility only if Edge isn't ready to come back by WM.
The Legit Dark Horse
Ted DiBiase, Jr. - The more I think about it, the more I believe that Ted DiBiase has a chance to win the Rumble. Think about it. Whenever there's been tension in Legacy, it's always been more between DiBiase and Orton rather than Rhodes and Orton. Orton punted DiBiase in the head last year so that Ted Jr. could go out with an "injury" (the injury report? "Filming a shitty movie"). When DiBiase's father hosted RAW, it led to a match that actually happened, rather than when de Dweem's match set up where everyone just attacked John Cena after the bell. Orton and DiBiase had that confrontation where Orton was daring him to strike and get kicked out of the group. Plus, there's this whole business of the aforementioned shitty movie... the WWE tends to cast faces in their hero-type movies, while the heels get horror roles or in Big Show's case, roles in slapstick comedy. They truly seem to believe that DiBiase is the truth, so while everyone's looking at DX, Cena, Batista or some other retread to win, the Bargain Bin Marine lurks in the corner as the much more shocking, tantalizing bet to win.
The Heavy Favorites
These are the guys who have been positioned both in kayfabe and out as the big guns, the top draws, the threats to win the whole match and go on to get their WrestleMania moment.
Triple H - Him winning makes sense only because he's Triple H, and he's supposed to win these things. He hasn't won since 2002, his only win, and really, who's
Batista and John Cena - Man, it's really, really unclear as to the plans for most of the top guys going into WrestleMania, isn't it? I mean, Batista's money feud with Rey Mysterio seems like it's going to finish before WM because ReyRey is rumored to be going into a program with CM Punk. Undertaker's taken by Shawn Michaels. Meanwhile, John Cena sorta has nothing to do on RAW, unless the WWE goes back on its word and has him feud with Orton again. Or maybe Cena and Sheamus go at it at WrestleMania. Or maybe Cena's impassioned promo on Vince McMahon on RAW was his entree into the Bret Hart fiesta. I have to wonder if Cena/Batista is in the cards for this year after they were denied that with Batista's injury problems last year. It makes sense. Still, there are many different ways to get there, and Batista winning the Rumble with Cena winning one of the titles between now and WM or vice-versa.
Shawn Michaels - Michaels seems to be the in-character favorite, the guy that they're leading everyone on to believe will win so he can get his date with destiny against Undertaker at WrestleMania. That would be an alright option, but at this point, it'd be the boring option. Michaels/UT again? Only this time, with a title on the line? Of course, it'd be far more intriguing if Taker lost the title and Michaels STILL wanted him at WM, but at this point, I think that match needs an inclusion (because I'm not ending UT's streak if I'm VKM, especially against Shawn Michaels). Honestly, every time I try to talk myself into someone other than HBK, my cynical side keeps telling me "You know he's going to win. You know he's going to win."
Whom Do I Think Is Going to Win?
I don't want to give into my cynical side, I really don't. I don't want to sit here and say that the WWE is terrible at telling a story lately (they are) and that they've been very ham-handed in the way that they've been building their new stars (they have). I don't want to think that they're going to give us, straight up, the same match they gave us last year at WrestleMania (they just might).
Therefore, instead of picking Shawn Michaels to win with a resigned sigh, I'm going to put my faith in the WWE, faith that they totally do not deserve at all, and predict that the Royal Rumble winner will be Ted DiBiase. Even though they've neutered Sheamus, demoted CM Punk, derailed Kofi Kingston and aren't ready to pull the trigger on Miz, they know they have to build a new star somehow, and they have one who can enter right into a money feud and match.
Ain't I gonna look stupid on Sunday now?
Prop Bets
Half the fun of the Rumble is finding out what happens during the match. Whether it's a surprise entrant, a storyline beginning or fermenting or a guy coming in like gangbusters and eliminating people like they were rag dolls. Here are some fun things to look at during the match.
Surprise Entrants 28 of the 30 guys in the Rumble match seem to be spoken for. There are the official 25, plus MacIntyre and Morrison, as well as Dolph Ziggler, who's been on the commercials and in that well-done retrospective they had on RAW. That leaves two spots for surprises. While I don't have anywhere close to an inside track, here are a few educated guesses:
Rob Van Dam - He was a surprise entrant last year, one of the things that people raved about during the match. The hot rumor is that he's going to TNA, but he hasn't debuted yet and has seemingly denied having any contact with the company. He is the perfect guy for the WWE to snap up as a big FU to TNA now that they're trying to compete. The biggest strike against this would be his appearances at both the ROH and PWG shows in Los Angeles this weekend. However, ROH is running Friday and PWG Saturday, so theoretically, he could hop on a plane and make it to the ATL for Sunday's show. Still, I'd say he's a longshot, although an intriguing one (especially if they sign him to a deal).
Edge - While everyone's being hush-hush about his status and putting the kibosh on him being ready, there's a chance that it's all just a big work and that he's going to make his grand return at the Rumble, ala John Cena in 2008. Of course, Edge would be returning face and probably would be positioned in a way where he took out a shit-talking, big-timing former partner of his, and I don't mean Christian or Randy Orton or Hulk Hogan or Rey Mysterio (oddly enough, none of those former partners are even in the Rumble match!).
Ricky "The Dragon" Steamboat - A Rumble appearance wouldn't be out of the question. He hasn't made an in-ring appearance for the WWE since Backlash, and this is the kind of match where he can make an impact without straining himself too badly. Plus, he has the added bonus of having been formally introduced to the entire WWE crowd, so him showing up would get a big pop.
Bret Hart - It's a very outside shot, but him in the Rumble could work. It's a match where he can lay back, let other people do the work for him, work a couple of signature spots and then get eliminated. The last part is the dicey part seeing that going over the top to the floor for a guy with the brain situation that Hart has could be dicey, but it could be done. And if all else fails, he could eliminate himself to get at a taunting Vince McMahon...
An FCW Call-up - What better way to introduce the world to a future star like, say Bryan Danielson, Low-Ki/Kaval or one of the Fortunate Sons? They come out, the announcers put over that they're one of the new signees to X brand, someone established laughs at him and then proceeds to get tossed. Bam, instant impact.
Tony Atlas - Can we all agree that this would be pretty awesome, especially if he eliminated someone and then did his goofy laugh afterwards?
Dusty Rhodes - Like Ted DiBiase, De Dweem hosted RAW as part of a connection to Legacy. Unlike DiBiase, Rhodes took a bump, which means he could seemingly still go for a limited appearance, i.e. The Rumble. If he does appear though, I may not stop doing my Dusty Rhodes impersonation until
Flair Push - Ric Flair was the first Rumble Iron Man, entering at #2 and lasting to win the whole thing, and the WWF Championship, in 1992. The Flair push goes to the guy who lasts the longest. It might not matter if the guy doesn't win, but it's worth noting anyway. This year, I think your Flair Push goes to Ted DiBiase in a win. He'll be one of the first two along with Cody Rhodes in attempt to push tension between the two. Rhodes may last just as long as well and be one of the last guys eliminated.
Diesel Push - The more famous of the named pushes, this one is for the guy who goes on a tear and eliminates a bunch of people in a short span of time, like Diesel did in his first Royal Rumble. Kane's Diesel run was probably the most memorable, because he eliminated a record 11 guys in his big moment. The most likely candidate for the Diesel push this year would have been Sheamus had he been in the match, but they went and strapped him, which is far better than getting a big push in a match you ultimately lose. Of this year's crop, I don't see a real standout candidate. They could do a retread with Kane. Mark Henry might get it. If I had to pick someone, maybe I'd go with Jack Swagger if I didn't think they were going to humiliate him.
Regardless of what happens, the Rumble is one of the most ordered, most acclaimed and most fun PPVs that the WWE puts out for a reason. It's the one night where really anything could happen, and it usually does. I have high hopes this year, even if I think the finish to the Rumble match might be flat, but whatever happens, if this event disappoints, I'll be shocked.
