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| Don't worry about CM Punk's standing in the company because you saw some bad ratings news Photo Credit: WWE.com |
It's true, WWE experiences a dip in audience from hour two to hour three of RAW most weeks. However, numbers without context are like movies with no conflict. There's no point and they're boring. We need to know what the numbers are telling us, and in plain English, it means the numbers are suggesting that people aren't watching WWE to completion with the implication that the sky is falling.
I've presented a lot of arguments based on visual evidence. Pick an argument, any argument. Whether it be merchandise sales being continually robust, the fact that CM Punk has been pushed hard for over a year despite this "troubling trend," that WWE is moving more and more towards social interaction through Twitter and Tout, and most especially, that networks have ordered two brand new shows to put on their slates. Those are all commonsense arguments against the idea that we as fans should get worried about the implications of ratings, whether it be guys we like getting pushed down to whether RAW will be on the air in three months.
But no, the NUMBERS are held up as godheads, even by sites that I write for, like Cageside Seats. That's nothing against Geno Mrosko as a person, because hey, if people can't disagree, then what the fuck is the point of life, eh? However, it's one thing to report ratings and audience size and a whole other to react to it weekly or misinterpret a trend. I actually used Cageside's weekly ratings roundup to take a look at the percent drop between hours 2 and 3 from RAW 1000 until now. Yes, there is a decline in most weeks. Only three weeks to date saw either stasis or an increase in audience from the second to third hours. However, the decrease in audience isn't as severe as you might think. Here's the data, IN GRAPH FORM!
On the X-axis is the date of each show. On the Y-axis is the percent drop-off in audience using this formula:
%Drop-off = [(2nd Hour Viewership - 3rd Hour Viewership)/2nd Hour Viewership]*100
Obviously, a negative drop-off value indicates an increase in audience. The average decline in viewership is 4.21%. So for every 100 people watching, only four didn't make it from hour two to hour three. Yes, there were weeks that were worse than others, including three around the 10% mark or above. However, all but one week of fluctuations fell within one standard deviation of the average audience. That means the trend is an insignificant one. That means WWE really isn't losing a whole lot of audience based on those raw numbers.
And you know what else? Those numbers don't take into account the amount of people who DVR the show in addition to watching it just so they can go to bed at a decent hour. They don't take into account people who watch RAW videos to catch up on stuff they may have missed after going to bed. Because the numbers are an average number of viewers, they don't take into account people who change the channel for a certain show and then tune back in for the overrun. And they certainly don't take into account the people who watch the show on a stream that may or may not still have commercials still in them (and if they do still have commercials in them, that means their sponsors are getting free advertising, eh?).
So yeah, as with most ratings talk past the Monday Night Wars, this third hour cliff that gets played up is insignificant. If you want a major signpost for WWE's financials, look at the WrestleMania buyrate, or more importantly, the fact that networks have ordered two brand new shows to put on their slates. I think that speaks to a more accurate view of how they're doing, not the ratings. Why?
Because ratings don't matter.
And you know what else? Those numbers don't take into account the amount of people who DVR the show in addition to watching it just so they can go to bed at a decent hour. They don't take into account people who watch RAW videos to catch up on stuff they may have missed after going to bed. Because the numbers are an average number of viewers, they don't take into account people who change the channel for a certain show and then tune back in for the overrun. And they certainly don't take into account the people who watch the show on a stream that may or may not still have commercials still in them (and if they do still have commercials in them, that means their sponsors are getting free advertising, eh?).
So yeah, as with most ratings talk past the Monday Night Wars, this third hour cliff that gets played up is insignificant. If you want a major signpost for WWE's financials, look at the WrestleMania buyrate, or more importantly, the fact that networks have ordered two brand new shows to put on their slates. I think that speaks to a more accurate view of how they're doing, not the ratings. Why?
Because ratings don't matter.
