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| Justin Smith, the key player for the 49ers this Sunday Photo Credit: San Francisco Chronicle via the AP |
So yeah, here are my cases for either team to win. You might agree with one. You might think I'm full of shit on both. Either way though, I'm just sitting back, watching the game Sunday, and hoping that if Baltimore wins, that Ray Lewis gets raptured before the celebration begins so we don't have to see him be all phony up in this heezy. Here goes nothing:
Why I think Baltimore can win: There's a dirty little secret about the San Francisco 49ers. Their secondary is not that good. Teams can pass on them for gobs of yardage. That has been masked by an absolutely dominant front seven that not only bottles up the run, but also got pressure on the quarterback in order to force bad throws and get plays for losses. The Niners pass rush dried up in the first half against the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship Game, and Matt Ryan, a quarterback of similar stock to Joe Flacco, was able to find Julio Jones and Roddy White for big yardage and a 21 point lead (that they subsequently pissed away).
That's the biggest key for the Ravens here is going to be whether they can neutralize the Smith boys. Justin Smith is still hobbled, so if he isn't a disruptive force, then they can double Aldon Smith, send Dennis Pitta or Ray Rice into the flat to keep the non-blitzing linebackers busy, and then let Torrey Smith run wild in coverage. The man made Champ Bailey look silly three weeks ago, and I'm not sure the Niners have anyone who is on his level. If Flacco is able to play pitch and catch with Smith early, and then to work Anquan Boldin later on in intermediate routes to chew clock, I'm not sure the Niners will be able to keep up, especially if they have to play from behind and need to count on Colin Kaepernick to make throws instead of being able to lean on the run game.
Why I think San Francisco can win: Joe Flacco can't throw the ball if he doesn't have it in his hands. The Niners have by far the best rushing attack in the NFL. They can punish up the middle with Frank Gore, they can speed it up to the outside with LaMichael James, and they can use subterfuge with their mobile young quarterback, Kaepernick. The Ravens defense has the reputation, but they were ranked 13th by yardage against the run. It was in the top half of the league, yeah, but the Niners run game is multifaceted, like another team that they lost to in the regular season. The Washington Redskins ran the read option offense with great success against Baltimore en route to 31-28 victory over the eventual AFC Champions. Yes, Robert Griffin III was a far greater threat to run (before he got hurt in that game), but I'd argue that Gore and James offer a more dynamic threat at the running back position than Alfred Morris did (and I say that knowing full well that Morris played PHENOMENALLY this year).
If the Niners get out to a lead, they'll run, run, and run some more. And when they want to pass, they'll have Michael Crabtree, the next in the line of 49er elite receivers, to abuse a Ravens secondary that lost its best player, Lardarius Webb, in Week 6. There are a lot of players on that defense that have names, but some of them are only in name only anymore. While the slowing down of Lewis and Ed Reed might be shored up by the emergence of Dannell Ellerbee and Paul Kruger, as a team, they've given up gobs of yards at a time. The Niners' offense has been explosive at times, especially when they haven't had to sheath the run game early. But even then, they'd have to be down a LOT of points for them to shelve the run game. We saw it in the NFC Championship Game. The deficit didn't bother them. They kept running, and lo, they kept scoring.
Oh, and that's not even taking into account that for as pliable as they've been in the secondary, the Niners do not let teams run on them. Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce are going to have a tough time against that front seven.
My prediction: Again, don't accuse me of disrespecting your team if I don't pick them, but this is a very hard game to pick. It's harder than normal. On paper, I'd say the Niners have the edge, but that was the case in the last two Ravens' games. They've played nearly perfect offensive football, have gotten a lot of turnover breaks, and they got key plays at the right time. Still, I can't pick against the Niners. I think I've been on their bandwagon all year, even when things looked rough. Gotta stick with them. San Francisco 24, Baltimore 20
