Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Forecasting '10: The Sapolsky Feds

2009 is coming to a close, and it's time to start looking towards next year and what it will hold for the various wrestling federations around the USA and Canada. TWB will attempt to look in the crystal ball and see where the major promotions are headed for '10. Today, we have the two feds that Gabe Sapolsky is booking - Dragon Gate USA and EVOLVE.

DR vs. YAMATO, credit Scott FinkelsteinThe year 2009 was an eventful one for Gabe Sapolsky. After having left his position as head booker of ROH, by his volition or otherwise depending on whom you believe, he accepted the position of head booker in Dragon Gate's American expansion. The company set out to offer "premium" wrestling which most fans took as them bringing puroresu to the States for 6 to 8 dates a year, a very light schedule. People didn't know what to expect.

After three shows, there's a much clearer focus for the direction of the federation. Although details are still fuzzy, the big picture is in place. There's going to be spillover from feuds in Japan coming to America. Chikara is going to play a heavy role in the fed, as will the influence of Jorge "Skayde" Rivera. And foremost, Davey Richards is probably going to be positioned as the Ace of the fed. DGUSA has been met with positive reviews, which has prompted Sapolsky to branch out with another fed, a more sports-based promotion where the wins and losses matter called EVOLVE. People questioned whether this was a good idea. The first show runs in 2010, so there's no history. It'll be written next year, and hopefully, I can get a good handle on how it's going to unfold.

What Happened in 2009?

After all the announcements and hype, "premium" wrestling came to the US in July as DGUSA ran its first show at The Arena to a packed house including Yours Truly. The tone of the fed was set that first night. High-paced, frenetic lucharesu action, big spots, hot finishes and an actual establishment of heels, faces and angles as well as the "dream match" feel that you get with a limited-card promotion. The American crowd was introduced for real to guys like BxB Hulk, Dragon Kid, Naruki Doi, Shingo Takagi and YAMATO among others, and instead of just Japanese guys who can work well, they were introduced as personalities, especially with the Youtube videos posted between cards.

After the jump...Onto the actual happenings, well, at the first card, the Young Bucks and the team of CIMA and Susumu Yokosuka blew the roof off the place, as did the 8 lads from Chikara in their match. The first big angle was set up establishing Gran Akuma and YAMATO as the top heels in their disrespect of Skayde. Onto the second show in Chicago, where we saw the introduction of Davey Richards into the fray. DR defeated Shingo in his match and then assaulted Bryan Danielson after his farewell tour loss against Naruki Doi for daring to pass the torch to him. You see, because DR doesn't get torches passed to him, he takes them. The other big thing happening on that Chicago card was Masato Yoshino blowing up at Dragon Kid after their second match. Kid beat him in Philly for the first card and after the second match in Chicago, Yoshino lost again. Kid offered his hand and Yoshino refused. They released a video showing a backstage altercation, Kid and Shingo acting out on their feelings of being disrespected by barging in on Doi and Yoshino backstage, setting up Kid relinquishing his spot in the Open the Freedom Gate Championship tournament for another shot at Yoshino, this time in tag match form. Yoshino got a tap out victory at the third show on Kid while Doi kept Shingo at bay. He then mockingly extended his hand to Kid, which got everyone riled up, but there won't be a fourth iteration since Kid, by giving up his spot in the tournament, got himself the first shot at the OtFG title.

The aforementioned tournament went down in the third show, the return to Philadelphia. Davey Richards was a favorite to win, given the build for thing, but he lost to YAMATO in the first round. BxB Hulk, Gran Akuma and CIMA won their matches to get spots in the final. There was more Skayde-related drama in the CIMA qualifier match. Man that old Mexican is a real heat source for those guys, isn't he? :) Anyway, the match included Skayde taking on CIMA, Super Crazy and Mike Quackenbush. Quack got a little butthurt that Crazy was targeting Skayde all match over a match that happened over a decade ago and that CIMA got the pinfall on Skayde. Quack and CIMA got into a shoving match, setting up something for the future.

The final match saw BxB Hulk become the first Open the Freedom Gate Champion by eliminating YAMATO. DR came out after the match and attacked Hulk with the help of a lingering YAMATO, while Dragon Kid, the sitting number one contender, made the save for his future opponent.

What's the Forecast for 2010?

It'll be very interesting to see what DGUSA will do with a full year's slate of shows. They've been successful building hype and delivering on it with the first three shows. Although I had a decidedly more tepid review for the third show than I had for the second, I still thought it delivered the goods, especially after intermission. Now that the company has established itself, I expect things to take off even more.

The OtFG title scene looks like it's going to be pretty full from jump. BxB Hulk will provide an insanely over and talented face Champion from jump. At the two Arena shows I've been at, Hulk has been the guy who got the most support from the crowd and the loudest cheers. Strapping him was a great choice. He'll face some tough challenges, mainly from Dragon Kid and Davey Richards, both guys who are also over as faces. DR is a perplexing case since they've booked him heel, but the crowds get behind him anyway. Oh you silly indie crowds.

I wouldn't be surprised, though, if neither of those two challengers win the title. In fact, if you're looking at future Champions, look no further than Gran Akuma and YAMATO. Both guys have been set up as the top heels in the company for doing things that American heels normally do. Yeah, Yoshino and Doi are heelish in action, but their feuds with Kid and Shingo respectively have been more Japanese in nature, i.e. built on competition, respect and storytelling rather than right vs. wrong. While the established Japanese guys are getting the big pushes early (and with good reason, the American crowds need to get invested in them), I expect the Americans to take over later. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gran Akuma with the strap around his waist at year's end. He certainly fits the Low-Ki mold in terms of build and offense, and Ki was one of Gabe's rocks in the early days of ROH. Akuma vs. Richards and Akuma vs. Dragon Kid would both be money feuds in the later part of the year into 2011 for the company, Akuma/DR especially. Both guys have lethal legs; it'd be a delightfully stiff match with more kicks than the English Premiere League.

I also strongly believe that they're going to set up a tag team division. They've hinted at it in all three shows, and they also put their eggs in having the Young Bucks be the ace team in the division. Too bad the Bucks are TNA-bound. Still, there are plenty of teams that have been established or implied to create a great tag division: Ryo Saito and Genki Horiguchi (the Open the Twin Gate Champs in Japan), SpeedMuscle (Doi and Yoshino), CIMA and Susumu Yokosuka, Jon Moxley and Brian Kendrick, Gran Akuma and YAMATO, YAMATO and DR, Quackenbush and Jigsaw, Hallowicked and Frightmare, Jimmy Jacobs and Prince Mustafa Ali. I don't know if it's coming sooner or later, but I'll put money on them adding an American Tag Team Championship belt by the 1 year anniversary. I also expect them to strap a Japanese team to start and build from there. My money is on Speed Muscle.

EVOLVE is a different animal altogether, even though there will be a lot of crossover between the two feds. It's natural, of course; the head booker and the top American star are both the same. Still, I get the feeling that EVOLVE will focus more on American indie guys and guys who are lesser known as well. Sure, Sapolsky staple Jimmy Jacobs is signed on, and everyone knows who DR is who follows the indies. Then there are the Chikara guys. Still, I think the main focuses of the fed, aside from DR, are going to be guys like Bobby Fish, Kyle O'Reilly and Ken Doane.

Of course, who knows if it'll catch on, even if they do get everything right. I mean, wrestling has always been an amalgam of things that attract people - the action in the ring, the colorful personalities, the storylines and angles that lend themselves to the crowd getting emotionally attached to the wrestlers, the pomp and hype, the interviews, the over the top comedy. If EVOLVE goes off like they say they're going to, they'll be cutting a lot that out and giving you only the sporting aspect. Granted, there is a crowd out there that go to wrestling events just to see wrestling matches, but is that crowd big enough to ensure EVOLVE's survival?

If it is, then I expect to see this become the DR vanity promotion with more critical interest being paid to the undercard. DR will get the headline matches; the main event for the first card in Rahway has him facing off against Kota Ibushi, whose praises I've sung on this blog before. However, a lot of attention will be paid to the guys like Doane, who will working to rehab his image after getting fired from the WWE for being a malcontent, and on the real up-and-comers like DR protege O'Reilly.

However, I really doubt that even with the names involved, that EVOLVE becomes more than a niche promotion. DGUSA will be the real money-maker, and maybe EVOLVE can do well to provide a breeding ground for guys to graduate to the DGUSA bigs to give it more of a distinct flavor from its Japanese counterpart.

Guys to Watch For in '10

Ken Doane - As I said before, Doane is embarking on a massive image rehab project. He has the tools to make up for it both in the ring and out, and I think he'll be one of the go-to guys in EVOLVE this year as he works to diversify his game.

Dragon Kid - Kid probably holds the best hand in terms of crossover appeal to the mainstream wrestling audience. He's basically DGUSA's Rey Mysterio, a high flyer with a look that appeals to the kids (who were there sporadically at both shows). He's being positioned as a main event player, which is a smart move on Gabe's part. DGUSA will always make money as the "premium indie" in America, but if they want to get a little more attention, there are worse guys to showcase than Kid.

Genki Horiguchi and Ryo Saito - With the Bucks leaving for TNA, Horiguchi and Saito are probably going to be the guys to anchor the fledgling tag division. They have the experience and the Japanese gold to back it up. I feel like they'll be leaned on heavily until teams like Jacobs/Ali and Moxley/Kendrick solidify more.

Hallowicked - Of all the Chikara guys, Hallowicked has gotten the most exposure via bad fortune of other people. He was drawn into the rudo team at the first show when Ophidian broke his arm, and he got bumped into the main PPV card when Jigsaw got stuck in Jersey Turnpike traffic hell. I think 'Wicked might be one of the Chikara Wrestle Factory alums with a bright future that extends past the local indies. He's got good height and fantastic ring presence. I think Gabe sees it too. Expect DGUSA to GOOOOO 2 SLEEEEPY HOLLOOOOOOOW~! more often in 2010.

Kyle O'Reilly - I was impressed by this kid in his dark match at the third DGUSA show. He has a nice offense based on chaining moves together, and I think he could really benefit from being in EVOLVE, a fed that values workrate more than any other part of the big picture. Being close to DR will afford him opportunities to shine, and I think he'll take advantage of them.

Three Things I Want to See Happen in 2010

1. I definitely want to see more crossover between the Japanese and North American wrestlers. There has been some, but the overriding feeling is that they've been segregating the Japanese from the Americans for the most part. DGUSA will work best if everyone is in the fray with everyone else. I mean, I can see SpeedMuscle vs. Shingo/Kid on DVD and Jigsaw vs. Eddie Kingston at a Chikara show. Melding the two together will be very important for future success.

2. A hopping tag division, but I think I already covered that :)

3. I don't want EVOLVE to think too big too early. As much as we the Internet have craved for more of a sports emphasis in wrestling, I think most of the saner people in that crowd know that you can't abandon the entertainment part of the equation, and that a concept like EVOLVE is going to fill a niche crowd and that's it. Ambition is good, but Gabe needs to tread carefully and focus on putting on a premium in-ring product so as to garner a buzz. Going viral was a good start, but they need to build up a base in the mid-Atlantic region before trying to tag along with DGUSA, which CAN go nationwide right from jump.


Next up, TNA.

Photo Credit: Scott Finkelstein - Please visit his site to view the plentiful amounts of pictures he's taken for DGUSA, ROH and other indie feds: Get Lost Photography